Redwood Estates, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXUS66 KMTR 050801
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
101 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025

Gusty north winds across the interior North and East Bay mountains
with a Wind Advisory in effect through 2 PM. Winds diminish later
this afternoon into the evening, with generally dry and warm
conditions through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025

Short Term Key Messages:
- Wind Advisory in effect for North Bay interior mountains and East
Bay Hills until 2 PM
- Wind gusts reach 35-45 mph in the North Bay interior mountains and
East Bay Hills during the Wind Advisory
- Winds begin to diminish in the afternoon

Gusty north winds are developing across the interior mountains of
the North and East Bays, the result of an interaction between a
cutoff low slowly moving east over southern Arizona and a developing
upper level ridge off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This
interaction is creating a strong pressure gradient that is helping
to drive the gusty north winds across the northern half of the
state. As of 11 PM Sunday night, the pressure gradient between SFO
and ACV (Arcata Airport, around 12 miles north of Eureka) was a
relatively strong 8.2 millibars. In addition, a narrow jet streak is
coming into the North and East Bays with winds of 50-55 mph at the
700 mb (around 10,000 feet above sea level).

So far tonight, the mountain gusts have been pretty intense with a
PGE station on Mount St Helena reporting gusts up to 78 miles per
hour and rising as of the latest update. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the North Bay interior mountains and the East Bay Hills
through 2 PM today, with sustained winds around 20-30 mph across the
warned area and gusts of up to 55 mph. The current thinking is that
the northerly component of the winds will limit mixing down into the
valley regions, but the operations team will keep an eye on the
observations and extend the Wind Advisory if necessary.

There are some fire weather concerns with the northerly winds across
the interior North and East Bays. Relative humidities across the
region have dropped to 15-25 percent, and the dry offshore winds
will not help matters by inhibiting overnight humidity recoveries.
Several stations across the North Bay interior have even met Red
Flag criteria for several hours of time. The main limiting factor is
that most fuels have remained moist after the past winter season,
but North and East Bay residents should still follow local advice on
outdoor burning and take caution around open flames, including
campfires and outdoor stoves, as any fires that do start could still
spread quite rapidly via the gusty winds.

As the cutoff low continues to trek eastwards through the Desert
Southwest, and the upper level ridge broadens as it approaches the
western United States, the pressure gradient will relax through the
day, allowing the gusts to diminish, especially in the afternoon and
evening. While gusty winds may linger in the higher elevations, the
gusts will fall below Wind Advisory criteria across the afternoon
and evening. The relaxing pressure gradient should also contribute
to diminishing the jet streak as it continues to move southward. As
a result, there is high confidence that the rest of the Bay Area and
Central Coast will be spared the strong wind gusts.

High temperatures today range from the lower to middle 80s in the
inland valleys, to the upper 70s to the lower 80s along the San
Francisco Bay and Santa Cruz County, and the 60s along the Pacific
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025

Long Term Key Messages
- Winds continue to ease through Tuesday
- Ridging pattern continues through the week
- Generally dry and warm through Saturday
- Possible trough early next week

Winds will continue to ease on Tuesday and return to a generally
onshore breeze through the rest of the week. A positively tilted
upper level ridge will result in generally dry and warm conditions
across the region, with inland highs ranging in the 70s to the lower
80s into Thursday, close to or slightly above seasonal averages,
while marine layer stratus keeps the coastal areas cool in the upper
50s to the middle 60s, around 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
averages.

Friday and Saturday could see a spike in the temperatures with a
strengthening ridge over the Intermountain West, with inland highs
reaching the lower to middle 80s (perhaps into the 90s in the
southern reaches of Monterey and San Benito County). Moderate
HeatRisk is possible in the southern Salinas Valley, meaning that
there is a risk for heat-related illnesses in most people sensitive
to heat, including children, the elderly, people with certain
medical conditions, and people without access to effective cooling.
Minor HeatRisk, where some risk exists for people extremely
sensitive to heat, is expected throughout most of the region.

Ensemble model cluster analysis reveals the potential for an upper
level trough to arrive later this weekend into the early part of
next week, with considerable variation in how fast the trough will
travel and how strong the trough will be when it arrives. Thus, any
discussion of potential impacts to sensible weather is somewhat
premature. There will be greater confidence in the evolution of the
upper level trough throughout the week, so stay tuned to the
forecast as the details emerge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

VFR through the TAF period for all but HAF which will have reduced
visibilities from sea spray (noted as HZ). Surface winds have
reduced, however winds aloft stay strong and turn more north and
northeasterly into the night, leading to LLWS. LLWS looks to
affect the more northern terminals, and will be much weaker to the
south. These LLWS concerns ease into mid Monday morning as
surface winds begin to match the aloft winds: gaining strength and
turning northerly. Winds look to remain northern and breezy into
Monday afternoon but turn more westerly for the second half of the
day. Expect winds to become light across the region into Monday
night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. The gusty winds
are reducing and becoming moderate, but stronger more northerly
winds aloft will lead to LLWS concerns through the mid morning.
Surface winds increase and turn northerly in the mid morning but
look to turn more northwesterly in the mid afternoon before
reducing and turning west into Monday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds look
to be light through the night. MRY`s early morning winds look to
be variable while models point to more northerly winds for SNS.
Winds will become more westerly and northwesterly further into
Monday. These winds become light once again into Monday night

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 951 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

Widespread gale conditions remain due to strong gusty north to
northwest winds, which are accompanied by widespread rough seas.
Winds diminish and seas reduce into the upcoming work week, but
breezy winds and moderate seas remain hazardous for small craft
through the first half of the work week. Mariners are encouraged
to check the latest conditions before departing port or harbor.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 535 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Monday
morning for the Monterey County coastline, where breaking waves of
15 to 20 feet are expected with the highest waves reaching 28
feet in favored locations. Elevated surf is also expected along
west and northwest facing beaches towards the north, but with a
slightly shorter period in this region, confidence in hazardous
conditions is somewhat lower. Additionally, gusty winds will cause
blowing and shifting sand, as well as increase sea spray, which
can complicate water rescues due to reduced visibilities.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ504-515.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
     Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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